From Coopetition to Fierce Competition

As the OpenAI-Microsoft partnership is getting undone, Anthropic finds itself in the middle of Amazon and Google, in an intricate ownership structure at the core of coopetitive dynamics.

However, as I pointed out in the previous issue, the undoing of the OpenAI-Microsoft partnership might cascade back into the frontier AI market, as it signals a much broader change in the underlying market structure.

Indeed, outside of capital needs, for Antrhopic, Amazon AWS is critical for its inference platform to enable the AI model company to serve its users at scale.

While Google TPU infrastructure is critical to enable Anthropic to keep developing the most advanced frontier models.

Yet, in the next 2-3 years, Antrhopic, like OpenAI, has to find a strategic partner that won’t potentially swallow it up.

So, the evolution of this structure will become interesting to watch out for in the coming 2-3 years.

And if approval is granted - at the regulatory level - if Antrhopic doesn’t find a different strategic partner, it might result in a merger with one of these two leading investors.

In fact, at over $60 billion in valuation, Anthropic is projecting its revenue to reach $3.7 billion by 2025, which is getting into OpenAI-level economics.