OpenAI’s Billion-User Gamble

Last year, OpenAI suddenly plateaued very close to the billion-user mark. We can be arguing about the saturation of the chat interface and the incredible rush of Google’s Gemini, embedded everywhere in Google Search.

Yet, there is another fundamental truth, a choice, that is also at the core of what OpenAI stands for, from an identity perspective, but also, and especially, where Sam Altman thinks the AI market is going next.

Being right or wrong on this thesis will determine OpenAI’s incredible upswing back to the top of the AI race, or perhaps its demise.

Indeed, as I’ll show you here, OpenAI killed the engagement engine that could have crossed the billion-user mark. Now it’s betting that agents, not companions, will get it there. Here’s the new architecture of growth.

This strategic choice will make or break OpenAI.