OpenAI’s Hardest Business Model Pivot Yet

OpenAI faces the most ambitious business model expansion in tech history. The company must transition from 2 proven revenue streams generating ~$13-20B annually to 5 revenue engines required to hit a $200B target by 2030 — a 15x growth requirement in just five years.

The core strategic tension is clear: while existing streams must grow 7-10x, three entirely new revenue engines — Agentic Commerce, Advertising, and Sora/Media — must collectively generate $55-95B from scratch, all while managing fundamental conflicts between them.

In strategy, clarity beats scope. OpenAI has scope. Anthropic has clarity. This analysis examines whether OpenAI can defy that principle — or whether the five-front war will prove strategically fatal.

And this is critical for OpenAI to achieve its verticalization play. This is what makes the difference between being just one of the players in the space and being the one that defines it, thus locking in market dominance.