There are two possible outcomes: if the result confirms the hypothesis, then you've made a measurement. If the result is contrary to the hypothesis, then you've made a discovery - Enrico Fermi
Life is wonderful because it is made of discovery.
And to me, that is exactly the point of analysis. Analysis is not about confirming the hypothesis you started with. The real pleasure comes when the evidence forces you to change your mind, when the result contradicts what you expected and reveals something you had not seen before.
I have spent my entire professional life analyzing businesses, partly out of passion, partly as a business executive and educator. What has always fascinated me is going beneath the surface to understand the structural patterns that explain what is actually happening.
That is where analysis becomes discovery.
This is where I stand.
NVIDIA’s Q2 print just came out, and to me it is the epitome of the Map of AI.
The Map of AI is my most rigorous attempt to track where we actually are in the AI Supercycle. Not where the hype says we are. Not where the skeptics want us to be. But where the underlying system is moving.
Because the real question is structural, and answering it requires nuance.
AI has become so divisive and politicized that most of the debate has collapsed into two camps. On one side, AI is snake oil: a speculative bubble, socially destructive, and largely a scam. On the other, AI is treated almost as an article of faith: the technology will transform everything, therefore every investment, company, and narrative attached to it must somehow be justified.
Neither position is analytical. And neither is particularly useful.
They do not help us understand what is actually happening, where value is accumulating, where bottlenecks are forming, what is durable, what is temporary, and where genuine excess is beginning to emerge.
I subscribe to neither camp.
My job as an analyst is to deconstruct the system. To separate structural change from speculation, infrastructure from narrative, durable economics from temporary scarcity, and technological transformation from financial excess.
If the AI Supercycle moves into genuine bubble territory, you will hear it from me.
If the evidence instead shows that AI is becoming one of the most consequential technological shifts of our generation, you will hear that too.
The objective is not to defend a thesis. It is to keep updating the map as reality changes.
