The Turning Point
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We are not in a correction, a cycle, or a transition. We are inside a structural phase change, the kind that happens once every 30–50 years, when the geopolitical, macroeconomic, and technological layers of the global system realign simultaneously.
Back in 2024, I explained why this is a 30-50-year supercycle.
The last time all three shifted at once was the post-WWII Bretton Woods settlement. What makes this moment uniquely dangerous and uniquely rich in opportunity is that the three layers are not just shifting, they are shifting simultaneously and reinforcing each other, creating a system where the old rules have already broken, but the new rules are being actively written in real time.
The conventional analysis treats these shifts as separate stories: tariffs here, AI hype there, interest rates somewhere else. That’s the wrong lens. The structural reality is that geopolitics enables the capex cycle, the capex cycle forces macroeconomic adaptation, and the macroeconomic framework shapes the speed of geopolitical deal-making. It’s a self-reinforcing loop, not a linear chain.
