The Transitional Market

The technology world is wild. Things that might have seemed true a few years back get redefined in a dance of challenged assumptions that once defined an entire industry are now getting redefined at the foundation.

That’s why also, from a cultural standpoint, the tech world is in a continuous battle of ideas, where every few months, new concepts come about, which then don’t survive the long run.

In an endless buzz cycle of ideas, as they get tested, they become more or less “true,” meaning these become the basis for a new foundation, a new paradigm, that will be true for a contextual time window that can last anywhere between 20-50 years.

In the meantime, as we go from transitional to foundational, that’s quite a ride!

I’ve touched upon the current paradigm shift we’re looking at right now:

The AI Platform Shift

In each of these cycles, we see the emergence of new ideas, challenging old assumptions, and the rise of new business models that, coupled with new foundational technologies, redefine the entire news cycle, thus enabling whole new industries and markets.

This is quite similar to any other human domain, with a core difference in tech that happens way quicker, thus giving us excitement and discomfort and shaping us as people who must redefine themselves every 10-20 years.

For instance, I’ve explained in yesterday’s weekly how we’re looking at the transition of not just one or two players in big tech but of the whole market.

This Week In AI Business: AI CapEx Race, Talent Wars, & No Moats in AI? [Week #6-2025]

That explains why, from a cultural perspective, the tech world has plenty of terms like pivot, paradigm shift, and disruption. It’s not just buzz but rather the nature of it.

And that is also why a year in AI feels like ten years in the real world.

AI isn’t just an informational layer, like the web; it’s potentially a computational layer, like the microchip.

With that in mind, this transition feels even stronger than the previous 30-year one. This “transitional market” is developing into something more mature in the next decade, something foundational.

And yet, all our business models will sit in a transitional market for the coming decade.

That is where the concept of the transitional business model comes about, as it sits on top of a transitional market.

But what’s a transitional market in the first place, and how can it be leveraged for traction before a new foundational market develops?